
This recession is a bitch. The talking heads on the Sunday morning shows were shooting off this weekend about the fact that the American economy was headed into recession no matter what, but the collapse of the real estate market and the ensuing cancer that ran through the banking industry has made for an economic event the likes of which most of those alive today have never seen. Unfortunately, they are right and, while there are some signs of improvement, most are saying recovery will be slow, unlike the boom times that often follow a deep recession.
The home theater industry's success is tied to the real estate market, as AV systems become more and more frequently installed into our homes. As an industry, the CE guys always have something new and cool to sell to consumers, be it DVD or satellite TV or HDTV or plasmas or Blu-ray. Flat HDTVs make so much sense to consumers that, even in today's recession, they sell by the millions per month, domestically and abroad. If you think about it, flat HDTVs have fallen in price faster than even personal computers in their heyday. Eight years ago, a 50-inch plasma HDTV cost nearly $20,000. The same set (likely a better one) might cost $899 today. The video industry sells on volume and price, so most of today's HDTVs are relatively affordable. That is their recipe for success.
Audio, a far more profitable business than video, isn't as good at selling on volume and price. HDMI has crippled audio products, as consumers don't know if they should have bought in at HDMI 1.2 or 1.3 or should they wait for the built-in consumer excuse known as the pending arrival of HDMI 1.4. Audiophile companies struggle to keep up with the technological curve, as electronics are far more digital than analog these days, yet their engineering strengths are much stronger in the analog domain. In many ways, audiophile companies are having a tough time keeping up.
Where specialty AV companies are having the most trouble is with re-pricing. Blu-ray players and LCD HDTVs drop in price like stocks in my SEP IRA and consumers line up to buy them en masse. Audiophile components get more and more expensive every year, for reasons including the cost of copper, high corporate overhead, growing shipping costs and the sheer expense of doing business in an increasingly digital world. Historically, consumers simply paid the higher price, but in today's luxury market, the competition is so steep that the other categories that the consumer electronics business battles with (think: travel, clothing, watches, restaurants etc.) are dropping their prices to stay afloat. There was an article in the New York Times recently about how owners of properties that license Four Seasons name are unhappy with management because the high-end hotel chain refuses to drop their prices low enough to keep the rooms filled. Specialty AV companies in many ways have the same problem. They expect rich people to always pay more for their gear, but today, rich people have choices about where to spend their money - a lot of choices.
Looking at positive examples from the audio/video business in the higher-end AV preamp market, brands like Anthem and Classe are selling out entire runs of their $8,000 AV preamps that are loaded with all of the latest features and packed with audiophile sound. Other companies looking to sell units for many times more than that are sitting with inventory on the shelves. As crazy as it seems to the layman, an $8,000 AV preamp is the right price for an AV enthusiast with a developed system featuring all of the cool new sources and audiophile roots. $30,000 is a much tougher sell in any economy. Today, it's nearly impossible.
Dealers in boom-then-bust cities like Las Vegas are seeing sales happen. However, the overall ticket price for an entire system has dropped by many multiples. Gone are the days of a developer pre-selling $40,000 AV and multi-room systems for tract homes. Instead, we have the reality of "the empty city," where people are getting foreclosed on in record numbers. The retailers who will survive this economic mess are finding ways to add value over the Frye's and Best Buys of the world so that they can eke out the profit they need to keep going. Wal-Mart and Costco simply don't operate on the same margins that specialty AV stores need in order to survive.
As much as AV manufacturers like to think retailers drive all of their sales, they are dead wrong. Consumer electronics sales are driven by the consumer, and the consumer wants both value and service. The specialty AV manufacturer and retailer must provide a fair price and better service, so that consumers opt to spend even a few percent more to buy from the specialty shop over the warehouse or big-box store. Products need to be priced right with more features for less money to woo consumers from spending what extra money they have on something other than new home theater gear.
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Comment on this article
As an audiophile and a business owner I have no sympathy for companies who inflate prices because of poor cost control. That is a part of being in business. If your business model assumes that you can have unlimited overhead and have the customer pay for it you are wrong. It is time that the audiophile industry comes to terms with the overinflated prices and adjust them accordingly. If not the industry will continue to shrink and become a hobby once again.
Excellent comments James.
Today is the day for specialty audio-video to find more value, more effectively. Too often however - the BEST, most expensive engineers and execs are let go to save money in the short term despite the vast talents they bring to the table.
A good example of this is GM closing their performance division - the guys that did the Cadilac XVT sedan. That's the ONE BRIGHT product they have and with the GVMT protecting them as well as chapter 11 protection this is the LAST division you would close. Audio companies do the same and if they keep it up - they will revert back to being a hobbiest product and that's IT.
Conspicuous consumption is out, and even rich people (worth much less than they were last year) are seeking value like everyone else. But especially w/ respect to high-end audio, the market is simply shrinking. Most high-end audio consumers came of age back when stereo was THE cutting-edge CE technology and listening to music was an active pursuit :). Neither are true anymore, music is background to other activites and portability, not sound quality, is king. Most audiophiles are deep into their 40's or older, and simply don't need another $5000 component with so many other priorities competing for their dollars and time. This excludes true hobbyists, but how many of them are left? Sadly, traditional audio consumers are leaving the market and they're not being replaced.
Hello Jerry,
I appreciate your site, and use it regularly. Thanks for all the great information.
After reading the article, "Can The Home Theater Business Re-price Itself", I wanted to express a few points relevant to my dollars.
For the past two years, it's been a widespread general practice of the reviewers of HDTV sets and players to focus intently on black levels, which is good, but to give almost a free pass on poor DVD scaling performance and other issues. Why pay $2,000 for a set, to have great blacks that pop, but have a distorted picture of a moire staircase? It's my opinion that black levels should be secondary to a clear picture and motion tracking.
Another free pass has been given to the disc layer change issue. Players that cost $2500-$10000 still have noticable 1 second layer change delays. Pioneers new Elite BluRay being one of them. It seems to be fated that our virtual movie experience be interrupted by a jolted layer change. If you are a videophile, how can that be acceptable?
For people paying money for performance which hopefully catches you up in the experience, that is a bothersome issue that $2500 should be sufficient to make disappear.
After 4 years, very poor DVD performance, poor layer changes, very poor operational and menu speed, HDMI handshake issues, lack of analog outputs for hifi, sub par handling of latest high def audio codecs, poor user interface for changing inputs for spouses, in some cases unattractive looks - Krell, you will never make a sale to any of the wives I know, Anthem, while I love the capabilities, you just have way too many buttons, my wife will not put that in the living room where the Primare sits. Classe, you are gorgeous, but you want me to do the EQ myself, so Denon gets the nod. If you are a stereo preamp, fine I'l do it. But if you are a $10k AV processor, you do it.
Put a Classe panel on an Anthem processer and you'll have my money.
For $10k, there are 'premium' AV amps that don't have enough inputs to play HDMI XBox 360, and Its mistake to think we don't want the best sound and picture for games.
My needs have changed. Where I used to have more time to listen to violin sonatas, I now spend time playing Gears of War with my son and want to hear every creaking footstep of whatever is sneaking up to tag me in surround sound.
Halcro, hey, I don't know if anyone has told you, but there is this thing called HDMI out now....PS I don't own a single piece of gear that uses S-Video, and you want to charge me a premium for 4 of them. I have 8 components with HDMI. If you want my money there are some changes that need to occur, and you've had years....
McIntosh, what is the deal with all the decals on the front panel? Are you suffering an image problem? There are so many decals on your AV panel one can no longer see the McIntosh branding for which I would have paid pride of ownership money. And again with the plethora of S-Video/Composite connections......my money needs to go elsewhere, like in an Anchor Bay Video Chip.
Dear McIntosh, if you want $10,000 of my money, include a Realta chip, 8+ HDMI inputs, remove the front panel advertising, and restore the clean look of yesteryear for me. If you want to sell me a $4000 player, buffer the layer change properly.
The latest round of speakers just don't cut it as living room furntiture, which is unfortunate. I was very sad to see Soliloquy shut it's doors. Those were gorgeous looking and sounding speakers, and they were very affordable.
Those are things I expect and desire from the market place.
Sincerely,
JDG
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